Key Points and Overview
- Cotton market prices showed stability, with spot quotations at 62.66 cents per pound and ICE futures slightly up to 65.62 cents by June 7, 2025, influenced by a weaker US dollar and US-China tariff talks.
- Global production is projected at 26 million tonnes for 2025/26, with consumption at 25.7 million tonnes, suggesting potential stock build-up.
- India faces challenges with low northern sowing due to water issues, but an increased MSP aims to boost cultivation; favorable monsoon rains could improve yields.
- US planting reached 66% by June 1, slightly behind last year, with weather aiding crops; Georgia farmers struggle with low demand, pushing some out.
- Sustainability efforts advanced, with Better Cotton appointing a new CEO and KIABI adopting sustainable sourcing via the Trust Protocol.
- Trade dynamics are influenced by US-China tariff pauses, positively affecting prices, amid ongoing global demand concerns.
Market Stability and Prices
The cotton market remained stable this week, with spot quotations averaging 62.66 cents per pound, up slightly from last week but down from last year. ICE futures saw a rise to 65.62 cents by June 7, driven by a weaker US dollar and positive US-China tariff developments, suggesting a market sensitive to macroeconomic factors.
Supply and Demand Trends
Research suggests global cotton production for 2025/26 will reach 26 million tonnes, with consumption at 25.7 million tonnes, potentially leading to stock increases. In the US, 66% of crops were planted by June 1, slightly behind schedule, with weather conditions playing a key role in yield expectations.
Regional Highlights
In India, northern cotton sowing is likely to stay low due to water scarcity, though an MSP increase to 7,121 for medium staple and 7,521 for long staple aims to encourage farming. Favorable monsoon rains could boost yields. In the US, Georgia faces low demand, pushing some farmers out, while weather in Texas supports planting.
Sustainability and Trade
Better Cotton's new CEO appointment highlights sustainability focus, with KIABI's case study showing progress in responsible sourcing. Trade tensions eased with US-China tariff pauses, boosting prices, but global demand concerns persist, especially in regions like Georgia.
Detailed Survey Note: Cotton Industry Developments, June 1–7, 2025
The cotton industry in early June 2025 exhibited a blend of market stability, regional production challenges, and significant strides in sustainability, reflecting a dynamic global landscape. This survey note compiles detailed insights from various sources, offering a comprehensive overview for stakeholders.
Market Prices and Trading Dynamics
The week saw cotton spot quotations averaging 62.66 cents per pound for the week ending June 5, 2025, a marginal increase from 62.61 cents the previous week, though down from 67.03 cents a year ago. Daily fluctuations ranged from a high of 63.27 cents on June 2 to a low of 62.13 cents on June 4, indicating a stable but narrow trading range. ICE cotton futures for July 2025 settled at 65.36 cents on June 6, rising to 65.62 cents by June 7, influenced by a weaker US dollar and easing US-China tariff concerns. The December 2025 contract also gained, settling at 68.21 cents, reflecting a market responsive to macroeconomic shifts.
Analysts noted a flat trading range, with the July contract within 300 points and December within 200 points over the past month, expected to persist into July and August absent significant shocks like weather events or geopolitical tensions. One expert described the market as "akin to watching paint dry," highlighting limited movement without catalysts.
Supply and Demand Projections
The International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) released projections for the 2025/26 season, holding global cotton production steady at 26 million tonnes and consumption at 25.7 million tonnes, suggesting a potential stock build-up that could influence future pricing. Cotton trade is anticipated to rebound by 2% to 9.65 million tonnes, driven by increased stocks and projected mill demand, with a price forecast ranging from 56 to 95 cents per pound, midpoint at 73 cents.
In the US, planting progress reached 66% by June 1, 2025, up from 52% the previous week but slightly behind the 68% from last year and the five-year average of 69%. Crop conditions were mixed, with 44% rated good and 5% excellent, but 8% very poor and 14% poor, underscoring the importance of weather in yield outcomes.
Regional Developments
India
India's cotton sector faces significant challenges, particularly in the north, where sowing is expected to remain subdued for 2025-26 due to water scarcity and farmers shifting to wheat and paddy, which offer assured procurement at minimum support prices. The area sown dropped from 15.62 lakh hectares in 2023-24 to 10.955 lakh hectares in 2024-25, projected below 10 lakh hectares next season. The Government of India increased the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for medium staple cotton to 7,121 from 6,620 and for long staple to 7,521 from 7,020 for 2024-25, aiming to incentivize cultivation. Favorable monsoon rains, however, are raising expectations for a strong crop, potentially reducing import needs and impacting global dynamics.
United States
US cotton planting benefited from favorable rainfall, particularly in West Texas, enhancing crop prospects and contributing to a bearish short-term market outlook due to improved supply expectations. Export shipments rose 15% week-on-week to 316,100 bales for the week ending May 29, 2025, indicating robust demand, especially from China and Pakistan. However, in Georgia, low global demand is pushing farmers out, with many relying on federal assistance post-Hurricane Helene, highlighting the industry's vulnerability to demand shifts.
Sustainability and Industry Initiatives
Sustainability remained a focal point, with Better Cotton announcing Nick Weatherill as its new CEO on June 5, 2025, signaling continued efforts to enhance global cotton farming practices. The European brand KIABI was highlighted in a case study for using the Trust Protocol to track sustainable cotton, emphasizing transparency and responsible sourcing, posted on June 2, 2025.
Trade and Tariffs
Trade dynamics were influenced by US-China negotiations, with a temporary tariff pause announced, reducing tensions and positively affecting cotton prices. This development, crucial for US exports, saw prices rise slightly, reflecting market sensitivity to geopolitical factors.
Broader Implications
The cotton industry's trajectory in early June 2025 underscores a balance between market stability and regional challenges, with sustainability and trade policies shaping future outlooks. Stakeholders should monitor weather impacts, demand trends, and policy shifts to navigate this complex landscape effectively.
Key Citations
- Cotton Market Review Weekly June 6, 2025
- ICAC 2025/26 World Cotton Market Projections
- Cotton Trading Range Flat Analysis
- North India Cotton Sowing Challenges
- India Cotton MSP Increase 2024-25
- Weather Impact on Cotton Prices US India
- US Cotton Planting Progress June 2025
- Georgia Farmers Low Cotton Demand Impact
- Better Cotton New CEO Announcement
- KIABI Sustainability Case Study Cotton
- ICE Cotton Price Rise US-China Tariffs
- USDA Cotton Market Review Report June 5
