Welcome to this week's newsletter, recapping key developments in the cotton industry from March 7 to March 13, 2026. Spot prices edged higher amid steady demand signals, while global forecasts point to shifting supply dynamics. U.S. producers face ongoing cost pressures, but export volumes hold firm.
U.S. Cotton Market Overview
Spot quotations for base-quality cotton averaged 61.68 cents per pound this week, up 42 points from last week but below year-ago levels. Daily averages ranged from 60.99 cents (March 6) to 62.09 cents (March 10), with ICE May futures settling at 65.14 cents. Spot transactions totaled 25,925 bales, down slightly from the prior week but up seasonally. Link to full USDA Weekly Cotton Market Review
Planting Intentions Signal Caution
The National Cotton Council's Early Season Planting Intentions Survey projects 9.0 million U.S. acres for 2026, a 3.2% drop from 2025. Upland cotton acres are down 3.4% to 8.8 million, while extra-long staple (ELS) rises 14% to 161,000. Regional shifts: Midsouth down 20.6% (steepest in Arkansas at 30.3%), Southeast down 4.9% (Georgia at historic low), Southwest up 1.6% (gains in Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas), West down 7.2% in upland but ELS surges. Harvested area: 7.1 million acres, yielding ~12.7 million bales. Factors: Low prices, high costs, weak demand. Link to Cottongins.org Weekly Update
Production and Ginning Progress
U.S. ginning reached 13.5 million bales by March 1, reflecting steady harvest wrap-up. USDA's March supply/demand report left U.S. production unchanged, with demand at 13.6 million bales (lowest since 2015/16). Mill use: Forecast at 1.6 million bales, down 100,000 from last season—lowest in 145+ years. First-half 2025/26 mill use: ~0.8 million bales, 4% below prior year. Link to Fine Day Radio Report
Export and Demand Trends
Exports through first 7 months of 2025/26: 5.1 million bales (43% of forecast). Full-year projection: 12.0 million bales, up 100,000 from 2024/25—largest in 3 years. U.S. global trade share: ~27%, steady but below early 2020s peaks. Weekly export sales showed positive momentum despite Middle East tensions. Futures rallied Friday, with front months up 74 points. December 2026 futures hover in upper-60s, signaling stable but uncertain conditions.
Policy and Economic Outlook
The Buying American Cotton Act aims to boost inelastic demand by prioritizing U.S. cotton, helping compete with high-yield countries like Brazil. Expert Joe Nicosia warns of industry jeopardy without demand focus: "We are not going to win a production race." 2026 outlook: Mid-60s futures, high inputs (fertilizers, shipping), weak prices—growers urged to manage costs and marketing. National Cotton Council's Jody Campiche highlights higher loan rates and seed cotton reference price increases starting 2026. Link to Farm Progress Article
Weather risks loom for 2026, with volatility from patterns like El Niño potentially altering yields. Cotton Newsline featured Southeast updates and Washington advocacy for the Act. Link to Cotton Newsline March 10
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International Cotton Highlights
Global production forecast for 2025/26 rose 1.1 million bales to 121.0 million, led by Brazil (+750,000 to 19.5 million) and China (+500,000 to 35.5 million). Mill-use dipped 140,000 bales to 118.6 million; ending stocks up 1.3 million to 76.4 million. Trade: +200,000 bales to 43.9 million, with India imports surging +800,000. Link to Cotton Incorporated Monthly Letter
2026/27 projections: Global output down 4% to 24.8 million tonnes, consumption steady at 25.0 million—tightening supply amid weaker China demand. Weather, planting areas, and China's imports are key variables for prices. Brazil reports good production weather; scattered showers aid yields.
In Kenya's Homa Bay County, cotton revival spans 15,000+ acres, yielding 365 metric tonnes—plans for a local ginnery to boost value addition and jobs. Link to X Post on Homa Bay Revival
China faces EU bans on Xinjiang cotton/tomatoes, impacting industries; Volkswagen/BASF halted production amid sanctions fears. Polyester price surges pushed cotton above recent highs, tightening supply-demand. Link to SunSirs Commodity News
Closing Thoughts
This week underscores U.S. resilience amid cost headwinds, with policy pushes like the Buying American Cotton Act offering hope. Globally, supply gaps could lift prices, but weather remains a wildcard.
