Welcome to this week's edition of the Weekly Cotton Market Update, covering key developments in the cotton industry from March 1 to March 7, 2026.
U.S. Cotton Planting Intentions Signal Caution Amid Economic Pressures
The National Cotton Council's (NCC) 45th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey, released in early March 2026, projects U.S. cotton producers will plant 9.0 million acres this spring—a 3.2% decline from 2025. This includes 8.8 million acres of upland cotton (down 3.4%) and 161,000 acres of extra-long staple (ELS) cotton (up 14.0%). The survey, based on producer responses collected in January, reflects ongoing challenges like low prices, high production costs, and sluggish demand.
- Regional Breakdowns: The Midsouth faces the steepest drop at 20.6% to 1.2 million acres, with Arkansas down 30.3% but Louisiana up 17.1%. The Southeast anticipates a 4.9% decrease to 1.6 million acres, including an 11.1% reduction in Florida and 3.6% in Georgia (hitting a low of 805,000 acres since 1993). The Southwest sees a modest 1.6% increase, driven by gains in Kansas (9.6%), Oklahoma (15.7%), and Texas (0.4%). The West projects a 7.2% drop in upland acres, with ELS up overall, including a 69.8% surge in Texas.
- Influencing Factors: Shifts to corn, soybeans, and other crops are common, influenced by stable cotton prices, slightly lower corn prices, and higher soybean values compared to early 2025. Projected harvested area stands at 7.1 million acres, yielding an estimated 12.7 million bales (12.3 million upland, 393,000 ELS), though weather and abandonment rates could alter this.
This cautious outlook aligns with broader economic headwinds, as highlighted at the University of Tennessee's Cotton Focus event, where experts noted opportunities for 2026 despite challenges. Read more on Cotton Focus insights.
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Economic Outlook and Market Challenges for U.S. Growers
Jody Campiche, NCC Vice President of Economics and Policy Analysis, described the 2026 environment as "tough," with low prices and high costs persisting. U.S. mill consumption is expected to dip to 1.55 million bales, while global consumption rises 1% to 120 million bales amid falling production (114.1 million bales). Ending stocks could drop to 69.8 million bales—the lowest outside China since 2016—potentially supporting prices.
- Demand and Exports: Stagnant demand and high costs continue to pressure growers, as noted in recent commodity outlooks. U.S. exports hit $5.8 billion in 2025, with India as the fifth-largest market ($392 million). However, China's reduced buying—down 85% in 2025 to $0.2 billion—highlights shifting realities, with non-China markets growing 32% to $4.6 billion. Explore the impact of China's pullback.
- Price Trends: Prices are rebounding but hinge on acreage and global demand. Attention now focuses on 2026 plantings, with supply delays potentially firming domestic prices.
The U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol opened enrollment for the 2026 crop year this week, offering growers tools for sustainability and market access. Details on Trust Protocol enrollment.
Policy Push: Buying American Cotton Act and Trade Negotiations
On March 3, NCC's Robbie Minnich highlighted advocacy for the Buying American Cotton Act in a broadcast update, urging House support to boost domestic demand. The Act aims to prioritize U.S. cotton in government purchases to address foreign subsidies and low demand. Listen to the NCC Broadcast Newsline.
Separately, lawmakers led by Rep. Jodey Arrington (R-Tex.) pressed USTR Jamieson Greer to eliminate India's 11% duties on U.S. cotton via the February 2 Interim Agreement framework. Signed by conservatives from key cotton states, the letter calls the duties a "significant barrier" for U.S. exporters, amid stalled talks complicated by tariffs and geopolitical issues. Industry groups like ACSA and NCC back the move, noting potential benefits for U.S. farmers facing losses. Full letter on India duties.
Tariffs remain a sore point, with Arizona growers reporting negative impacts from U.S. policies on demand.
International Cotton Highlights: Oversupply and Regional Shifts
Globally, the ICAC's March report forecasts a 4% drop in 2026/27 production due to low prices and weak demand, with Brazil remaining the top exporter despite a dip. Production continues to exceed consumption, prompting shifts away from cotton in major regions. China, India, and Brazil lead supply, while Asia drives demand, keeping prices under pressure.
- India: The cotton supply chain faces strain from declining productivity, rising imports, and weakening farm-firm links. December 2025 imports soared amid duty-free pushes, with 2025/26 consumption down 2.9% to 30.5 million bales. Mechanization advances were demonstrated in Nagpur by CITI-CDRA and partners. Analysis of India's cotton challenges.
- Brazil and Australia: Brazil's output is forecast at 3.96 million tonnes for 2025/26, retaining its lead despite a slight fall. Supply increases from Brazil have contributed to global oversupply.
- Pakistan and China: Pakistan sets a 700,000-acre early cotton target for 2026, with a Rs2bn Cotton Valley project in Bahawalpur, amid falling output and rising imports. Domestic prices may firm due to limited quality cotton. China's exports hit a 7-year high despite U.S. tariffs, bolstering its market position. Pakistan cotton price outlook.
Market Summary and Forward Look
Cotton prices influenced by U.S.-China tensions in 2025 carry into 2026, with oversupply persisting. Trends like regenerative agriculture and sustainability (e.g., Better Cotton Initiative enrollment open until May 15) offer resilience. Over 60 countries grow cotton, with 50 producing significant quantities, underscoring diverse global dynamics.
In summary, U.S. growers navigate reduced acreage and policy advocacy, while international markets grapple with oversupply and trade shifts.
