Welcome to this week's edition of the Weekly Cotton Market Update, covering key developments in the cotton industry from January 25 to January 31, 2026. The US market dominated headlines with fluctuating prices, robust yet inconsistent export sales, and policy pushes to bolster domestic demand. Internationally, supply challenges in India and trade shifts in Asia highlighted ongoing global dynamics. Overall, cotton futures dipped amid volatility, with ICE prices nearing lows not seen since late last year.
US Cotton Market Overview
The US cotton sector experienced a week of mixed signals, with prices softening despite strong underlying export demand earlier in the period. Spot quotations and futures reflected broader commodity pressures, but policy initiatives like the Buying American Cotton Act (BACA) offered optimism for long-term demand recovery. Analysts noted weather risks and acreage projections as key watchpoints heading into February.
Price Movements and Futures
- Cotton futures closed lower on January 30, with March contracts down 31 points to 63.17 cents per pound, marking a weekly drop of 64 points. May 2026 settled at 64.93 cents (-0.44), and July at 66.55 cents (-0.46).
- The weekly average spot quotation for base-quality cotton fell 81 points to 60.27 cents per pound, down from 61.08 cents the prior week. Daily highs reached 60.98 cents on January 16, but lows hit 60.27 by week's end.
- The Cotlook A Index held steady at 74.15 cents on January 27, while the Adjusted World Price dropped 76 points to 50.23 cents per pound. Crude oil's slight uptick to $64.74 per barrel provided minimal support amid a strengthening US dollar.
- Open interest in futures hit record levels, rising by 12,031 contracts, signaling increased trader engagement despite the downturn.
Export Sales and Shipments
- A delayed USDA report for the week ending January 15 showed a marketing-year high of 412,457 running bales (RB) in Upland cotton sales, up 21% week-over-week. Key buyers included Vietnam (220,700 RB), Bangladesh (38,600 RB), and Pakistan (31,800 RB).
- However, sales cooled for the week ending January 22, with net Upland exports dropping 51% to 203,700 RB—17% below the four-week average. Shipments rose 20% to 187,800 RB, primarily to Vietnam and Pakistan.
- Pima cotton sales reached a high of 16,400 RB, with exports up 2% to 10,000 RB, destined mainly to Vietnam and India. Total export commitments stand at 7.553 million RB, down 13% year-over-year but 66% of USDA projections.
- Online auctions via The Seam sold 6,183 bales at 57.51 cents per pound, indicating steady but moderate domestic trading.
Production and Ginning Updates
- Bales classed for the week ending January 22 totaled 299,947, with quality metrics showing 28.9% color 21, 38.0% leaf 2, and average staple of 36.07. Offices like Memphis and Corpus Christi led classifications.
- Certified stocks remained at 8,600 bales as of January 29, with no changes reported.
- An approaching winter storm raised output disruption fears, while crop insurance prices for 2026 are eyed at around 68 cents per pound in Southwestern regions. Post-harvest soil testing is urged to optimize yields amid high fertilizer costs.
Policy and Industry Developments
- The Buying American Cotton Act (BACA) gained bipartisan momentum in Congress, aiming to incentivize US-grown cotton use via tax credits for retailers and manufacturers. Supporters, including the National Cotton Council, see it as key to boosting demand and supply chain resilience. Link to NCC releases.
- The U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol appointed Marjory Walker and Liz Hershfield as co-directors to enhance sustainability efforts.
- Better Cotton Initiative (BCI) opened enrollment for the 2026/27 season, targeting US expansion with over 2,600 members focusing on regenerative practices.
- Acreage projections suggest a dip to a 10-year low in 2025, with states anticipating shifts based on market demand. Industry leaders like Hank Reichle of Staplcotn emphasized capturing more domestic retail share.
- A potential government shutdown looms, but USDA funding remains secure, keeping agriculture programs stable.
Domestic mill inquiries were moderate for longer-staple cotton, with producers planning for early 2026 meetings. Overall, the US market showed resilience in exports but faces headwinds from volatility and tighter forward orders.
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International Cotton News
Global cotton dynamics were influenced by supply adjustments and trade negotiations. Cotlook revised its 2025/26 global output forecast down modestly to an 841,000-tonne surplus over consumption, with increases in India and China offset by declines in Brazil and Africa. ICE futures extended losses amid weak US sales data and market volatility, though a softer dollar cushioned impacts.
Key Regional Highlights
- India: Production hit a 15-year low due to pests, high costs, and climate risks, shifting the country to a net importer. The Cotton Association of India raised 2025/26 estimates by 2.5% to 317 lakh bales. South Indian yarn markets steadied, with sentiment firming ahead of summer demand and potential boosts from an India-EU FTA pushing for zero-duty access.Market sentiment details.
- Pakistan and Asia: Textile exports to China shifted up the value chain, with home textiles up 30% and made-up articles doubling, though cotton yarn remains dominant at $451.4 million.
- Other Global Notes: WTO members urged action on cotton trade challenges for least-developed countries. Reciprocal trade deals with Guatemala and El Salvador reinforced US-Western Hemisphere textile partnerships.
Outlook
Looking ahead, February brings acreage updates and insurance pricing, potentially shaping 2026 plantings. US demand recovery via BACA could counter global surpluses, but weather and tariffs remain risks. Stay tuned for next week's update.
