Welcome to this week's edition of the Weekly Cotton Market Update, covering key developments in the cotton industry from February 22 to February 28, 2026.
Market Snapshot: Prices and Trends
Cotton futures showed modest gains this week, reflecting mixed demand signals and supply concerns. As of February 27, ICE Cotton No. 2 futures for December 2026 settled at 69.70 cents per pound, up 0.25 cents from the prior close. The nearby May contract dipped 2 points week-over-week but posted 25-point gains on Friday, closing at 65.61 cents per pound, up 0.43% daily and 2.94% monthly. Overall, prices rose past 66 cents per pound mid-week—the highest since August 2025—driven by strong export sales but tempered by a stronger dollar and tariff uncertainties.
- Key Drivers: USDA reported a marketing-year high in export sales at 466,300 bales, up 70% from the prior month, led by Vietnam and Bangladesh. However, global projections show a 3% decline in 2026/27 production to 116 million bales, with U.S. soybeans competing for acreage.
- Spot Market: Daily averages ranged from 62.03 cents (Feb 23) to 63.06 cents (Feb 25), per USDA's Weekly Cotton Market Review. The Adjusted World Price rose 1.79 cents to 51.84 cents per pound.
- Outlook: Prices remain in a narrow 65-69 cent range, with resistance at 69 cents hard to break. The Cotlook A Index climbed 60 points to 76.45 cents.
This week's volatility underscores ongoing challenges like rising production costs (up 164% since the 1990s) and competition from man-made fibers.
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U.S. Cotton Highlights
The U.S. cotton sector dominated headlines this week with legislative pushes, export fluctuations, acreage projections, and economic pressures. Bankruptcies rose amid falling acres, but export commitments and policy wins offered glimmers of hope.
Export Sales and Commitments
U.S. Upland cotton export sales dropped 46% week-over-week to 253,200 running bales (RB), aligning with seasonal norms but down from the prior surge. Led by Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, this followed a high of 466,300 bales the previous week. Pima sales, however, rose. Total commitments stand at 8.75 million RB, down 9% year-over-year and 78% of USDA's full-year projection—lagging the 91% average pace. The Seam reported 6,467 bales sold on February 26 at 59.09 cents per pound average.
- Implications: Strong demand from Asia buoyed futures, but a proposed 15% global import tariff could dampen momentum. ICE-certified stocks held steady at 119,457 bales.
Legislative and Policy Developments
The Buying American Cotton Act (BACA) gained traction, with a National Cotton Council (NCC)-led coalition urging House support. Introduced by Reps. Greg Murphy (R-NC) and Terri Sewell (D-AL) on January 22, BACA aims to boost U.S. cotton content in retail products. Meetings with congressional offices continued, emphasizing "Plant, Not Plastic" to reshore textiles and spur demand.
- Relief Programs: Texas producers received $487.36 million from the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program and $566.63 million more. The One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025, enhanced the 2018 Farm Bill, raising CCC loan rates to 55 cents and offering $117.35 per acre payments (up to $155,000 per entity).
- Tax Benefits: Arkansans saw larger refunds from the Working Families Tax Cut, despite Democratic opposition amid inflation.
Acreage and Production Projections
U.S. growers intend to plant 9.0 million acres in 2026, down 3.2% from 2025, per NCC's Early Season Planting Intentions Survey. USDA estimates a 13.92 million-bale crop, with Upland at 13.53 million and ELS at 388,000 bales. Harvested area: 7.81 million acres; yield: 856 pounds per acre. Soybeans may expand 6% at cotton's expense.
- Regional Impacts: Rio Grande Valley acres fell from 400,000 to 35,000; farmers hope BACA sparks revival. Mid-South bankruptcies spiked as acres dropped to 9 million.
Economic Challenges and Innovations
Cotton faces long-term headwinds: Brazil overtook U.S. exports, and man-made fibers captured 78% of global textile share (from 65% in 2007). Production costs rose 164% since the 1990s, and yields have modestly. Farm-gate prices for 2026: 63 cents per pound, up 3 cents.
- Sustainability News: Cotton Incorporated highlighted cottonseed oil for PFAS-free textiles and cotton's biodegradability vs. plastic pollution.
- Tariff Impacts: Brands like Brooklinen note U.S. Pima cotton limits and rising costs from tariffs.
- Consumer Trends: Retail clothing prices up 0.4% monthly/yearly; imports down 20% year-over-year in October.
NCC praised the Big Beautiful Bill for direct aid, including $85 per acre cash payments.
International Cotton News
Global cotton dynamics shifted with production outpacing consumption, trade declines, and regional innovations. Weak demand signals an economic slowdown.
Global Outlook
2025/26 mill use dips to 118.7 million bales; production rises 1% to 119.9 million. Trade up 3% to 43.7 million bales; ending stocks +2% to 75.1 million. China (29% of production) and Brazil lead increases, offsetting U.S./Australia drops. 2024/25 trade fell 4.1%; Bangladesh became the top importer as China cut 65% to 1.1 million tonnes.
- Demand Weakness: November WASDE showed a 2.4 million-bale production hike but flat consumption. Man-made fibers dominate 78% market share. China produces 36 million bales (mostly Xinjiang), unaffected by UFLPA.
Regional Developments
- Uzbekistan: Plans 70% automated harvesting in 2026 for efficiency.
- India: Bharat CotNet 2026 initiative fosters sustainable ecosystems; pragmatic U.S.-India deal on cotton.
- Australia: Sydney University-CRDC project yields strong returns on cotton research.
- Africa: Nigerian techniques like adire gain global markets.
ICE cotton slipped 1% on February 27 due to resistance and dollar strength. Global benchmarks eased over the past month.
