Welcome to this week's edition of the Cotton Market Update, covering key developments in the cotton industry from January 31 to February 6, 2026. With U.S. cotton prices hovering near multi-month lows amid sluggish demand and export commitments, the industry faces headwinds, but initiatives like enhanced subsidies, fights, and enrollment programs offer glimmers of support. We've prioritized U.S. news (about 75% of content) while highlighting international highlights (25%). For quick reading, we've used bold subheadings, bullet points, and short summaries.
U.S. Market Prices and Futures: Continued Volatility and Declines
The U.S. cotton market remained under pressure this week, with prices dipping despite some bullish fundamentals. On February 6, cotton fell to 61.63 USd/Lbs, down 0.24% from the previous day, marking a 4.96% monthly decline and 6.24% year-to-date drop. Futures dropped amid sluggish export commitments, lagging behind the five-year average.
- Key Drivers: Declining demand spurred closures below 64 cents, with technical selling dominating. Pro Farmer noted a pause in futures on February 4, but the bearish posture persists, exacerbated by a strong U.S. dollar and lower crude oil prices.
- Weekly Review: Daily quotations ranged from 59.63 cents (high on Jan 30) to 58.40 cents (low on Feb 5), with spot transactions reported.
- Outlook: Only significant 2026 planting reductions could lift prices, with first estimates expected soon. Max Xaser on X highlighted $200 million inflows into cotton over six months (+58%), signaling a potential rally entry in March.
This volatility underscores the need for farmers to monitor charts closely, as the market shows "the good, bad, and ugly" – robust yet inconsistent elements. (Approx. 250 words so far)
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U.S. Exports and Ending Stocks: Steady Projections Amid Challenges
Export projections held firm, but real-world commitments lag. U.S. 2025/26 exports are forecast at 12.2 million bales (up 300,000 from prior), with world production down 360,000 bales. Ending stocks are seen at 4.21 million bales, mostly unchanged.
- Tariff Impacts: Arizona farmers report tariffs slashing demand, with China buying just thousands of bales instead of 3-5 billion annually. Dr. Darren Hudson discussed non-tariff pressures on prices in a YouTube segment.
- Economic Outlook: ADM Investor Services noted weak demand and drought risks capping gains ahead of USDA's Outlook Forum. Pro Farmer echoed technical selling on February 2, with light short covering.
- Arkansas Focus: Low prices may reduce 2026 acres, straining the agricultural economy, as shared by Keith Ingram on X.
These figures highlight a market confounded by fundamentals, with 2026 crop conditions key to price discovery. (Approx. 450 words)
U.S. Policy and Industry Initiatives: Pushing for Change
Policy efforts ramped up, with the outgoing National Cotton Council chair urging an end to foreign subsidies. The American Cotton Shippers Association thanked Rep. Greg Murphy for leading the Buying American Cotton Act to boost domestic demand.
- BCI Enrollment: Open until May 15 for the 2026-27 season, aiming to enhance sustainability.
- Budgets and Leadership: Cotton Incorporated and NCC cut budgets due to lower production and imports. Cotton Incorporated created a CMO role to consolidate marketing and boost demand.
- Farmer Insights: The 2026 State of the American Farmer report highlights innovation, economic data, and surveys. Stacey Gorman from The Cotton Board featured in NCC's January broadcast.
- Trends for 2026: From farming to fashion, consumers prefer natural fibers like cotton (59% willing to pay more). Youth education is key to growth, per Dr. Seshadri Ramkumar.
These moves signal a proactive stance, with macroeconomic delays from shutdowns noted in January's Executive Update. (Approx. 650 words)
U.S. Production and Sustainability: Eye on 2026
Production trends point to challenges, with low prices potentially cutting acres. Walker and Hershfield were named co-directors of the U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol.
- Sustainability Push: BCI trainings emphasized soil health and sustainable farming. (Note: While in Pakistan, this aligns with global BCI efforts influencing U.S. practices.)
- Research: New findings on secondary cell wall formation could transform the industry, as posted on #FiberFriday.
- Historical Context: Reflections on the 1884-85 Cotton Centennial Exposition remind of the industry's roots.
Focus remains on 2026 plantings for recovery. (Approx. 750 words)
International Cotton News: Global Pressures and Opportunities
Shifting to 25% international coverage, key regions showed mixed signals. Global ending stocks are projected at 74.56 million bales. ICAC's 83rd Plenary in Bremen (March 23-24) will feature world outlooks and specialty cotton discussions.
- India: Budget 2026 introduced the National Fibre Scheme, but the 11% cotton import duty drew criticism for high domestic prices impacting exports. CITI seeks permanent duty removal. North India's yarn market stayed flat, with fading U.S. trade deal optimism. Samunnati's outlook notes production lows, shrinking acreage, and rising imports, but MSP procurement stabilizes. A suggestion on X: Ban raw cotton exports beyond quotas, subsidize domestic sales.
- Pakistan: Cotton arrivals rose 0.62% to 5.545 million bales by Jan 31, but below 10.2 million target; the industry faces export declines and competition from India. Acreage lost to sugarcane (up to 1.8 million acres). Sami Foundation held BCI training in Umerkot.
- China: Eased import duties on cotton and wool to 1% to support textiles.
- Australia: Productivity gains over 25 years via tech, biotech, and irrigation, as noted by farmer Lachlan Nass.
- Global Notes: WTO's Trade Policy Review for Gambia (Feb 4-6) and reform discussions ahead of MC14 in Cameroon. Global grain stock-to-use ratio rises to 31.8%.
These developments could influence U.S. strategies, especially subsidy fights.
Thanks for reading!
