TL;DR
Global cotton production hits ~119–120 million bales in 2025/26, outpacing mill use and keeping stocks comfortable into 2026—expect sideways prices in the upper-50s to low-60s cents/lb absent weather shocks. Brazil and India lead growth, U.S. holds steady at mid-teens million bales; West Texas growers should prioritize yields and costs over chasing rallies, while gins plan for variable volumes.
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The 2026 Cotton Balance Sheet at a Glance
World cotton enters 2026 with an ample supply but no fireworks on the demand side. Baseline forecasts peg 2025/26 production at 119–120 million bales (480-lb equivalent), slightly above mill consumption of around 116–117 million bales, leaving ending stocks near 90–92 million bales or a stocks-to-use ratio hovering at 80–82%.
This "comfortable but not crashing" setup means no repeat of the tight 2021–22 squeezes, but also caps explosive price upside. For West Texas producers and the gins they rely on—like those detailed in our cotton gin construction cost guide—the story is steady volume potential if yields hold, but razor-thin margins demand discipline.
Major Producers: Who's Planting What in 2026?
The "big four" (China, India, Brazil, U.S.) will supply about 75% of global cotton, with shifts underway. India edges toward the top spot at ~27–28 million bales, fueled by government support and monsoon reliability; China is steady at 29–30 million bales despite domestic mill slowdowns.
Brazil surges to 18–19 million bales on expanded acreage and tech, while the U.S. plants ~13–14 million bales, harvesting 12.5–14 million with West Texas delivering over half via high-yield dryland and irrigated fields. Declines loom in West Africa (drought risks) and Australia (variable rains), tightening exportable supplies—a boon for U.S. basis if logistics hold.
Mill Demand: Asia Leads, But Growth Stays Sluggish
Cotton mills chew through ~90% of output in Asia: China (~35 million bales), India (~25 million), plus Pakistan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Turkey rounding out the pack. Global consumption inches up 1–1.5% annually through 2030, dragged by synthetic competition and uneven economic recovery.
Weaker apparel demand in the West and China's inventory rebuild keep 2026 mill use below production; emerging trends like recycled cotton and premium "climate-smart" fibers (see our sustainable cotton gins guide) offer niche upside, but volume growth stays muted.
Trade Flows: Exporters Hold the Price Cards
Just 25–30 million bales move in trade, dominated by U.S. (~12–13 million bales exported), Brazil (~8–9 million), and Australia (~4 million). West Africa's ~2–2.5 million bales face weather headwinds, potentially propping U.S. shipments if quality shines.
U.S. cotton flows mainly to Vietnam, China, and Turkey; any Brazil export surge (hello, lower costs) pressures prices, but U.S. traceability edges create premiums for brands chasing sustainability—key for gins investing in profitability upgrades.
2026 Price Outlook: Sideways with Risks
Futures point to 2026 averages in the 58–62 cents/lb range (A Index), with upside to 65+ on U.S./Brazil drought or India export curbs, downside to mid-50s if global growth falters. Stocks-to-use eases to ~80%, but no sub-75% tightness without shocks.
West Texas cash basis tracks 1,000–1,500 points under NY futures; at 60 cents futures, that's ~44–45 cents net delivered to gins—tight when gin costs run $25–35/bale.
Key Risks to Watch:
- Upside: La Niña drought hits the U.S. Plains or Brazil's Mato Grosso (20–30% volume risk); India holds exports.
- Downside: Strong China demand fades, polyester flood, or U.S. acreage boom on corn weakness.
- Wildcards: Tariffs redux under President Trump, EU sustainability mandates boosting U.S. premiums.
West Texas and U.S. Takeaways: Plant Smart, Gin Lean
Texas A&M eyes 2026 U.S. acres up slightly to 11–12 million if prices hold vs. grains; West Texas (High Plains) targets 5–6 million acres, chasing 800–1,000 lb/acre irrigated yields.
Growers: Lock yields via tech (drones, variable-rate irrigation), hedge 30–50% early, and scout sorghum rotations for soil health. Gins: Model volumes at ±20% of trend (40K–60K bales), as global gluts hit local basis first—per our gin profitability analysis.
Planning Checklist for 2026
- Monitor weekly: USDA WASDE for stocks-to-use; Brazil Safras & Mercado for acres.
- Budget realistically: 55–65 cents futures, $22–30/bale ginning costs.
- Risk tools: Crop insurance at 75% APH, PUT options for basis protection.
- Value-add: Certify traceability for 1–3 cent premiums; link to sustainable gins.
- Acreage pivot: Compare cotton ROI vs. corn/soy at $4–5/bushel grain prices.
Global cotton in 2026 rewards efficiency over speculation. With stocks comfortable and demand tepid, West Texas operations thrive by controlling what they can—yields, costs, and quality—while eyes stay glued to Brazil's weather radar and Asia's mill appetites.
